BCC/Totaljobs: Increase in recruitment in Q4 despite lockdown

Results from the British Chambers of Commerce Quarterly Recruitment Outlook (QRO), in partnership with Totaljobs, found that while there was a modest improvement in the overall number of businesses attempting to recruit in Q4, sectoral disparities remain.

Fieldwork for the survey was carried out between 2 and 26 November 2020, during the second lockdown. It found that:

– 41% of firms attempted to recruit in Q4, up slightly from 37% in Q3, but this remains below pre-pandemic levels (55% in Q1 2020).

– Firms in the public and voluntary and construction sectors were most likely to recruit, while hotels and catering firms were the least likely to recruit.

– Overall, a quarter of firms saw a decrease in the size of their workforce over the last three months.

– Looking ahead to the next quarter, 19% of firms expect an increase in the size of their workforce, 68% expect it to remain the same (up from 62% in Q3), and 14% expect a decrease.

The largest independent survey of recruitment intentions in the UK serves as a barometer of the UK labour market. It received 5,900 responses, 95% of which were from SMEs employing fewer than 250 people.

The survey follows the BCC’s latest Quarterly Economic Survey, which found that business conditions remained weak in the fourth quarter, as the second lockdown squeezed activity.

Looking ahead

The percentage of firms that anticipated the size of their workforce to increase in Q1 2021 (19%) was virtually unchanged from the previous quarter (18%). A higher number of firms (68%) expected no change to the size of their workforce in Q1 2021 compared to 62% in the previous quarter.

However, 14% of firms expect the size of their workforce to decrease in the next quarter, slightly fewer compared to the previous quarter (19%).

Construction firms (24%) and manufacturing firms (22%) were the most likely to expect the size of their workforce to increase in the next quarter, highlighting higher levels of optimism felt by those sectors able to continue operating despite Covid-19 restrictions.

Hotel and catering firms (35%) and, perhaps more surprisingly, transport and distribution firms (25%), were the most likely to expect the size of their workforce to decrease in the next quarter.

Recruitment trends

Looking at Totaljobs application and vacancy data, in Q4 2020, logistics, followed by IT, administration, sales and customer service roles were receiving the most applications on the site. Comparing October and November 2020 with Q3, there was a 26% rise in job vacancies, before a seasonal decline over the Christmas period. The highest volume of vacancies was seen in logistics, IT and skilled trades. Candidate activity continues to outstrip vacancies and rose by 11% in October and November compared to Q3.

Looking back further to Q4 2019 compared to Q4 2020, logistics and social care have seen the strongest recovery in terms of their recruitment, with demand for roles in these sectors only dropping very slightly year on year, as calls for more staff increased over the course of the pandemic.

As we approach the end of January, Totaljobs data shows skilled trades, social care and engineering join IT and logistics as the sectors posting the highest volume of roles. The market continues to be employer-led, with applications outstripping vacancies. In the first weeks of January, Totaljobs saw over 2.6 million applications compared to 102,000 vacancies on site.